politics

As I write this, we’re less than two hours from a federal government shutdown. By the time you read this, it may have happened (probably) or it may have been averted (unlikely). Or maybe it will have happened and then been resolved. While I consider the most current controversy to […]

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Fiscal Cliff Tax Changes

by Michael on Jan 1, 2013 · 1 comment

Well… Congress technically let us go over the fiscal cliff, though the Senate has now passed legislation to address the situation. The House should consider it soon and, after some pontificating, I expect it (or something very similar) to pass — perhaps narrowly — and to be signed into law. […]

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Who is Grover Norquist?

by Michael on Nov 27, 2012

At the risk of wandering off into politics, which I typically try to avoid… It’s hard to turn on the news this week without hearing the name Grover Norquist. Why? Because he has convinced the vast majority of Republican lawmakers to sign a pledge. The pledge in question — the […]

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I debated about writing this, in large part because I think the whole “fiscal cliff” thing is little more than political theater — at least in the near term. That being said, there is so much attention being paid to it that I figured it would be worth putting together […]

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Shortly after finishing my earlier article about how Intrade works, I discovered an interesting discontinuity in election odds across sites. In particular, online gambling site Betfair has Obama as a considerably stronger favorite. Given this divergence of opinion, people should be able to guarantee themselves a profit by betting on […]

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How Does Intrade Work?

by Michael on Nov 5, 2012

After seeing Intrade mentioned time and time again in connection with the upcoming election, I finally gave in and decided to check it out. If nothing else, I figured it might be fun to have something more than the future of our country riding on the outcome of the election. […]

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